Everyone tells you who's hot. Dugout Math tells you whether it's real.
What this is
Every baseball site will tell you who is hot. Almost none of them tell you whether it is real. Dugout Math takes each player's recent results and checks them against the underlying quality of contact — exit velocity, barrel rate, expected stats — and renders a verdict: a genuine breakout, or a hot streak that is about to end.
Where the numbers come from
Two free public sources: the MLB Stats API for games, box scores and schedules, and Baseball Savant for pitch-level Statcast tracking. Everything on this site is derived from those — no scraped data, no paid feeds, and no scores bought from anyone else.
How fresh it is
Data refreshes once a day, early each morning, and covers games through the previous day. Statcast tracking lags box scores by about a day, so contact-quality numbers trail the results by one more. Nothing here is live or in-game — that is a deliberate choice, not a gap: this is a tool for the decision you make in the morning.
How to read a verdict
Every verdict carries a confidence tier driven by actual sample size, and the raw numbers behind it. When the sample is too small, it says “Too early” rather than guessing. When the contact quality is merely average, it says “Running hot” rather than claiming a breakout. The method is written up in full on the methodology page.
What it is not
It is not a betting service and it does not sell picks. Prop Lab prices a fair, no-vig line from the model and lets you compare it to a book's number yourself — there is no odds feed here, and the model has no information a sportsbook does not. Bet responsibly, or don't bet at all.
Free, and staying that way
No ads, no affiliate links, no paid tier, no email harvesting. An account is only needed for the parts that are about you — following players and connecting a fantasy league. Everything else is public.
Found something wrong?
Please say so — a wrong number is the worst thing this site can do. Email [email protected].
Not affiliated with or endorsed by MLB or MLB Advanced Media. Player and team data © MLB Advanced Media, used for individual non-commercial purposes.